Goldilocks Conditions for Trend Following

Today, we explore what it means to invest in a world defined by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). We discuss why geopolitical shocks... especially supply-driven ones... are creating persistent trends across markets, and why trend-following strategies are thriving despite strong equity performance. The conversation dives into how investors process information (or fail to), the limits of central bank responses to supply shocks, and why markets may not be fully pricing in current risks. Mark also shares new research comparing hedge fund strategies under different volatility regimes, highlighting why managed futures stand out as a robust diversifier. The episode closes with a forward-looking discussion on AI, replication strategies, and the growing role of narrative versus data in investment decision-making.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction: Preparing for the unpredictable

00:36 – Entering a VUCA world: volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity

02:00 – “Uncharted territory” in markets and beyond

05:30 – Central banks, leadership changes, and policy uncertainty

07:16 – Oil markets, OPEC shifts, and geopolitical tension

10:16 – Trend-following performance update and market context

14:06 – Reverse engineering CTAs and the role of AI

18:42 – Replication strategies vs. true alpha

22:41 – Trend-following performance metrics (April update)

24:43 – Supply shocks and why they’re harder to manage

28:53 – Are markets underreacting to geopolitical risk?

31:53 – Information overload, ambiguity, and trend persistence

34:54 – Why more data doesn’t mean better decisions

38:34 – Government intervention vs. market-driven trends

40:30 – Pandemic policies and unintended inflation

43:00 – New research: hedge fund strategies vs. volatility regimes

47:16 – Why managed futures stand out as diversifiers

51:11 – Narrative vs. data in investment decisions

55:36 – AI, sentiment analysis, and the future of models

58:46 – Simplicity vs. complexity in strategy design

01:00:49 – Bundling vs. unbundling investment strategies

01:03:18 – Momentum crashes and new research directions

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer