Heuristics for Cutting Losses

Leon summarizes heuristics: sell when price screams you're wrong and test conviction by going short to feel it.

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Episode notes

Leon (aka Arrakis Global) is a pseudonymous generalist fund manager, a former banker turned go-anywhere, thematic fund manager with a track record that has been up and to the right.

We have the privilege sharing his podcast debut.

This episode goes deep into how a generalist with a commodity bias navigates today's markets.

In this conversation, we dive into:

Why he treats risk management as a religion - hence going 95% cash!
How he thinks about price action, narrative, and market structure as a fluid system
Why he will flatten his entire book when the market is telling him he's wrong
The macro forces reshaping commodities & real assets
His most painful trade — a huge loss on Illumina — and the lessons on borrowed conviction
Why learning too much about a stock is his red flag

Follow Leon:

X — https://x.com/ArrakisGlobal

If you found this valuable, subscribe for more conversations with investors and operators across mining, commodities, and global markets.

Episode recorded: 03/18/2026

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TIMESTAMPS

(0:00) Intro

(4:10) Leon’s Risk First Playbook

(11:50) How Themes Are Born