Understanding the cattle curve and seasonality

In this episode, I sit down with Jordan Levi to explore how he’s built a unique edge in the cattle industry by combining deep analytical thinking with real-world market experience. Jordan walks me through how he approaches cattle trading, the key biological and financial variables that ultimately determine profit and loss, and how he developed his framework without growing up in the business. We spend time unpacking how the cattle market actually works, where volatility comes from, and how operators think about risk across the cycle. We also dive into how he’s embracing AI tools and building custom workflows to stay ahead in a fast-moving, data-heavy environment.

We discuss:

- How the cattle market works and why volatility creates both risk and opportunity

- The key drivers of profitability including feed efficiency, average daily gain, and out weight

- The difference between biological intuition and building a data-driven edge in cattle trading

- How Jordan processes daily reports and market data to inform trading decisions

- How he’s building AI agents to summarize information and streamline his workflow

Links:

Vote for Jordan to be inducted into the Cattle Feeders Hall of Fame - https://cattlefeeders.org/poll/2027-cattle-feeders-hall-of-fame/

Jordan on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/jordan-levi-b107182/

Topics:

(00:00:00) - Intro
(00:02:16) - The Belted Galloway
(00:03:51) - The Kosher Cowboy
(00:08:05) - Pulling value of the futures forward
(00:11:43) - Learning cattle trading
(00:16:48) - Daily average gain in cattle
(00:18:20) - Jordan’s eureka moment in the cattle industry
(00:21:08) - What does trading in animals actually look like?
(00:27:05) - How Jordan defines his ROI in trading cattle
(00:31:17) - The cattle curve
(00:33:37) - The state of the cattle market
(00:42:10) - Buying the largest cattle feeder in the world
(00:46:09) - Grass vs. grain-fed cattle
(00:49:15) - Predictions for the cattle supply over the next 10 years
(00:50:54) - The international market
(00:53:17) - Trading frequencies and macro thesis
(01:00:27) - USA beef vs. international beef
(01:05:21) - The cattle supply chain
(01:07:32) - The future of auction yards and ranchers
(01:09:40) - AI in AgTech
(01:12:52) - The biggest problem facing the industry
(01:14:42) - Livestock as a commodity that dies and how that impacts trading theory
(01:20:51) - Is there a market for new entrants into cattle?
(01:21:41) - Beef prices and the impact of a closed border on the industry
(01:24:39) - Jordan’s biggest ideas for the industry
(01:26:49) - Philanthropic efforts
(01:31:24) - A day in the life of Jordan
(01:26:42) - Risk management in cattle
(01:41:17) - Does what you do show a leading indicator to the broader health of the American economy?

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