The Power of Calibration in Weather Forecasting

Weather forecasters are probably the most calibrated of any sort of forecasting that's done. They use past experiences, they have full access to their previous predictions and what actually happened. It's as if they're basically getting know whether there was a gorilla present every single time or whether there wasn't a gorilla present. And it's very hard from the outside to look at a money manager and say, okay, were they good or were they lucky? Really over a really long term, could you tell that apart?"

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