The Importance of Risk in Trading Systems

I think what the crisis of 08 and 09 really taught me was that people often don't know what's coming. If you go back to January 2007, you would not find a single macro economic forecast or who would say in two years time the US is going to be in a very serious recession. None of those guys had a clue. Apart from this, there's a very small number of people. As you say that though, it looked like that in the context of a system. What they did do was in mid 2008, say, well, it looks like the equity market is starting to go down. We're going to go from being equal equities to flat and then short equ

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