Ep. 536: The Most Important Thing with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
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The Role of Forecasters in Economic Growth
I always remind people overpriced is not the same as going down tomorrow. And if you bear that simple truth in mind, I think it helps. Taleb and the role of Locke, very important. John Kenneth Galbraith was one of my favorites. He was somewhere between free enterprise and socialism. The only problem is they don't make any money because let's take the economy. Last year GDP grew 2%. Many forecasters forecast that GDP will grow this year at 2%. That's called extrapolation. Forecasts which are not extrapolations, forecasts which are radically different from the recent past are potentially very valuable if they're correct. If they're incorrect, they'll cost you
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