Hindsight Bias and Economic Uncertainty

This week, we celebrated Presidents Day, which makes it a fitting time to recognize one of America’s most underrated presidents. Herbert Hoover presided over the onset of the Great Depression and is widely viewed as the inferior predecessor to Franklin D. Roosevelt. But, as host Megan McArdle explains, that judgment is unfair to Hoover. It also reflects a larger problem: the assumption that a president can singlehandedly fix or wreck the economy.

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