Phase-Based Macro Framework and Bayesian Tools

▬▬▬ DISCUSSION ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
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▬▬▬ EPISODE ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
In this episode, dive into a comprehensive discussion on modern monetary theory, macroeconomic modeling, and how fiscal flows influence markets and assets like Bitcoin with Douglas Padgett -- a macro researcher and founder of Applied MMT. He shares his insights on government spending, private credit cycles, and the importance of flow analysis for market forecasting.
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▬▬▬ SOCIALS ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
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▬▬▬ CHAPTERS ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
00:00 Intro
01:32 Why traditional textbooks overlook the real macro regime post-1970s
02:02 Douglas's background: Austrian roots and transition to MMT-based macro analysis
04:18 Core ideas of Modern Monetary Theory and government’s role in creating financial assets
12:39 Defining applied MMT: profits, profits sources, and the profit cycle
15:17 How government spending acts as an asset and profit driver
19:00 The mechanics of government borrowing and liabilities as assets
23:41 The role of repo markets and reserves in government spending
32:15 The real fiscal deficit impulse and its predictive power
44:37 Private debt cycles and leverage in macro analysis
49:35 Deep MMT: advanced forecasting tools and system dynamic models
01:06:01 Correlation between fiscal flows and Bitcoin price movements
01:10:27 Why fiscal flows provide a clearer picture than Fed liquidity
01:13:08 The nature of the Treasury General Account (TGA) and its implications
01:14:33 The relationship between bond issuance, reserves, and fiscal policy

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