Forecasting Approaches and Explainability

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In this episode, Peter sits down with Vanguard's Kevin DiCiurcio to unpack how Vanguard thinks about long-term return forecasts—and why the percentiles in those tables are the part most investors misunderstand. They go behind the scenes of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM), and translate what it's really saying into practical guidance for planning and portfolio decisions.

Listen now and learn:

► How Vanguard builds and governs its capital markets model—and what it's designed to do (and not do)

► A simple way to interpret percentiles without turning them into predictions

► What changes when you shift from a 10-year lens to a 30-year lens

► The key portfolio implications Kevin thinks long-term investors should be paying attention to

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

(00:00) Introduction

(02:16) What the Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM) Is—and Why Return Assumptions Matter

(04:04) How Vanguard Wants Investors to Use VCMM: Expectations, Risk Trade-Offs, and Smarter Allocation Decisions

(09:27) How Vanguard Builds the Forecasts—and the Capital Market Assumption Approaches They Didn't Rely on Alone

(15:08) How to Read Percentiles, 10-Year vs 30-Year Forecasts, and What Vanguard Likes Most Right Now

(29:21) The Performance-Chasing Problem: When Investors Suddenly Want More International Again

(30:05) AI, Mega Trends, and Three Scenarios: Why Economic Upside Doesn't Guarantee Stock Market Upside

(34:31) Geopolitics and Markets: Why It's Not a Direct Forecast Input, But Still Shapes Long-Term Premia

(37:48) The 2026 Signposts: What Would Actually Change Vanguard's Conviction and Move the Outlook

(39:32) What Vanguard's Capital Markets Research Team Is Focused on Next—and Why Ranges Beat False Precision

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)

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The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

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