Chuck’s Commentary - Major Shake Ups That Affect The 2026 Midterms + Top 5 Things You Won’t Believe Were LEGAL In Politics
The Chuck ToddCast
How Big Could a Democratic Wave Be?
Chuck Todd explains conditions required for a large Democratic gain and what could derail it.
In this episode, Chuck Todd breaks down a rapidly shifting 2026 political landscape beginning with Susan Collins’ decision to seek re-election in what could become the toughest race of her career, a contest that may prove pivotal in a potentially tied Senate where Democrats could even attempt to court Lisa Murkowski. Chuck explores how Collins’ choice reshapes the map, why an open Maine seat would have favored Democrats, and how outsider candidates like Graham Platner may challenge both party establishments. The conversation widens to key battleground developments in Texas and Florida, including Alexander Vindman’s Senate bid and the risks of divisive primaries, while Republicans face mounting structural challenges and a slipping grip on the House. Chuck also examines why Democrats are expanding their target map, what could still derail a major Democratic wave, and the intensifying fight over voting legislation like the SAVE Act—arguing that partisan “poison pills” have deepened gridlock and made meaningful compromise in Washington increasingly rare.
Finally, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 crazy things that used to be LEGAL in politics and a bonus Top 5 list of things that shouldn’t be. Plus, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
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Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
01:30 Susan Collins announces she’ll run for re-election
02:15 2026 will be the toughest race Collins has ever faced
03:15 In a 50-50 senate, Dems will court Murkowski to flip parties
04:00 Trump doesn’t court challengers for Susan Collins
06:30 Had Collins not sought re-election, it’s a guaranteed Dem win
08:00 Platner will be able to run against both party establishments
09:15 Developments in Texas have been terrible for Republicans
09:45 Surprising that Turning Point would tie themselves to Ken Paxton
11:00 The last things Dems need is a racially divisive primary in TX
11:45 Alexander Vindman joins Florida senate race
14:30 Vindman fits profile of Dem that can win in a light red state
15:30 The house has slipped away from GOP, can they hold the senate?
16:45 It would take a major outside event to change environment for GOP
18:00 Dems add new seats to their target list
19:45 Only thing standing between Dems & huge win is their nominees
21:30 Republicans are trying to shove through the SAVE Act
22:15 SAVE Act unnecessarily complicates trying to vote
23:30 SAVE Act & HR1 were loaded with poison pills
24:30 Neither side willing to compromise to pass these bills
26:15 Poison pills were features, not bugs
35:00 A few changes to law drove wave of congressional retirements
38:30 ToddCast Top 5 crazy things that used to be LEGAL in politics
39:15 #5 Corporations used to be able to give directly to candidates
41:00 #4 Party machines openly bought votes
41:45 #3 Federal jobs used as campaign currency
43:30 #2 Candidates could accept unlimited, anonymous cash
44:45 #1 Candidates could keep their war chest after leaving office
45:30 Top 5 list of legal things in politics that should be made illegal
46:00 #5 Members of congress trading stocks
48:15 #4 Leadership PACs
49:00 #3 Lobbyist bundling
50:15 #2 Members of congress can negotiate a future job & still vote
51:45 #1 Presidential pardon power
53:45 Ask Chuck
54:00 Can Trump be unpopular and still be a populist?
55:45 What happened to the Supreme Court tariffs case?
57:30 Sharice Davids eyeing a run for senate?
59:30 How can we heal as a country while swamped with divisive content?
1:02:15 How could the media better explain the levels of Trump’s corruption
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