Political consequences for Trump's coalition

Chuck Todd delivers a searing assessment of a war he calls one of choice, not necessity. He argues that "ends justify the means" sums up everything about Trump's presidency, noting that the rationale for the war has shifted multiple times, there was no smoking gun incident to prompt the strikes, the administration's credibility with the public is extremely low, and Trump's own surrogates spent years warning that Democrats would start a war with Iran. He questions whether the U.S. got boxed in by Netanyahu and whether Trump is simply looking for his own Delcy Rodriguez-style compliant leader in Tehran, pointing out the absurdity of calling on Iran's military to surrender without clarifying to whom. He warns that regime change is a tall order that gives America enormous responsibility it isn't prepared for, that oil prices are set to soar with massive domestic political consequences, and that the prior cuts to Voice of America were a shortsighted mistake now that winning hearts and minds actually matters. He warns that if unilateral executive war-making becomes normalized, America will have fundamentally changed its republic. He closes by pivoting to the Texas primary, where Talarico appears to have momentum heading into election day, Trump has refused to endorse in the GOP race leaving Cornyn exposed, and total primary turnout will serve as a critical bellwether for November's midterms.

Finally, ahead of the Texas primaries on Tuesday, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Texas’s declaration of independence from Mexico & the unique forces that shaped the state’s “Lone Star” mentality. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:00 “Ends justify the means” sums up everything about Trump’s presidency

06:45 The administration’s credibility with the public is extremely low

07:30 Military sources are less likely to lie to reporters than political ones

08:30 The rationale for the war has changed multiple times

09:15 There was no smoking gun incident to prompt the war

10:30 Regime change is a tall order & gives us more responsibility

12:00 Trump has called for the Iranian military to surrender… but to whom?

12:45 Cuts to Voice of America was a shortsighted mistake

13:30 After massacre of protesters, there was a humanitarian case for strikes

15:00 Is Trump looking for his own Delcy Rodriguez in Iran?

15:30 Did the U.S. get boxed in by Netanyahu?

16:30 This a war of choice, not a war of necessity 

17:15 Trump & surrogates warned for years that Dems would start a war with Iran

18:00 Trump has targeted two world leaders in less than a year

19:00 The administration has created a massive political problem

19:30 Trump has given up domestically, focused on foreign policy legacy

20:30 Trump doesn’t think about consequences beyond what’s good for him

21:15 This war will create an identity crisis for the Republican party

21:45 This has the potential to be incredibly good for the middle east

22:15 10/7 was the biggest strategic mistake Iran has ever made

23:30 Gulf states can’t keep their neutrality, MBS talked Trump into attacking

24:30 Iran’s proxies were more effective than their actual military

25:00 Israel is clearly the military power of the middle east

25:45 Oil prices likely to soar and will impact politics domestically

27:15 Trump probably cuts the deal if Iran completely capitulated

28:00 Iran was more forthcoming in negotiations than Russia is

29:15 Trump only chooses fights he knows he can dominate

30:00 Congress has itself to blame by not even bothering to vote

31:00 Will the American people decide that congress is optional

31:45 Contradiction between campaign rhetoric & governance should matter

32:45 If unilateral executive action becomes normal, we change our republic

34:15 Success overseas rarely translates to votes at the ballot box

35:30 Iraq & Afghanistan are still a mess twenty years after intervening

36:15 Talarico seems to have momentum prior to Texas primary

36:45 Trump refused to endorse in Texas

37:30 Dan Crenshaw is the only Republican in Texas without Trump’s support

38:30 Total turnout in Texas primary will be a bellwether for November

39:15 There are a lot of Cornyn/Talarico voters

48:00 ToddCast Time Machine - March 2nd 1836

48:45 Texas formally declares independence from Mexico

49:30 Independence declared in a small town, not a capital

50:45 There was a substantial population of Tejanos already in Texas

51:30 The revolution was multiethnic

52:00 Texas received exemptions for slavery under indentured structures

52:30 How the Alamo became a symbol

53:15 “Remember the Alamo” was a powerful rallying cry

54:30 Sam Houston eventually defeated the Mexican forces

55:00 From 1836-1845, Texas was an independent republic

56:00 The disputed border provided the pretext for war

56:30 Texas retained extraordinary autonomy compared to other states

58:00 Texas doesn’t just have an origin story, but an argument with its past

59:00 Ask Chuck

59:15 What is the political risk for Trump in not making war case to the public?

1:02:45 Why is the media so quick to jump onboard the administration’s framing?

1:07:00 How strong was the nuclear deal Obama struck with Iran?

1:11:30 Why aren’t drafters of the Articles of Confederation considered founding fathers?

1:15:00 Is Trump trying to elicit a “rally around the flag” effect to help the midterms?

1:18:30 Will Trump force through tariffs using a different emergency authority?

1:22:45 How was the career change from network to independent gone?

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