SI387: The Cost-Benefit of Being Trendy ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel
Top Traders Unplugged
Why CTAs Sometimes Miss Gold Gains
Andrew and Tom examine implementation, liquidity, and de‑risking explaining CTAs' limited gold capture.
Today, we examine a year that looked chaotic but felt familiar to trend followers. Gold surged, equities rotated globally, and non-US markets quietly gained momentum. Yet beneath strong returns lies a deeper debate about model design, short versus long horizon signals, and whether innovation in liquid alternatives serves investors or sales desks. From AI disruption to product engineering and allocator behavior, this episode explores where systematic strategies truly create value and where structural incentives distort outcomes. In a changing macro regime, clarity of purpose may matter more than ever.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introducing the Systematic Investor series
01:17 - AI disruption and systematic investing
06:52 - The shifting perception of US risk
09:21 - Winter Olympics and market metaphors
12:59 - Hedge funds versus private equity
19:23 - 2025 review and the importance of risk allocation
22:17 - Why CTAs did not fully capture gold
29:48 - Short term versus long term trend models
35:27 - Letting risk run versus investor palatability
44:43 - The problem with liquid alternatives
51:21 - Product design versus fiduciary duty
59:06 - QIS, innovation and investor sophistication
01:04:41 - Model risk and the myth of risk premia
01:10:51 - Hopes for a trending year ahead
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2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
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3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
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