TIVP066: Valuing Constellation Software's Spinoffs: Topicus, Lumine and co. w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley
The Intrinsic Value Podcast - The Investor’s Podcast Network
Topicus valuation scenarios
Daniel models bear, base, and bull cases for Topicus using RIC, reinvestment rates, and exit multiples.
Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley take a deep dive into four companies operating in the shadow of one of the greatest compounders of the last two decades — Constellation Software. Some investors believe that Topicus, Lumine, Sygnity, and Asseco Poland represent the best way to own the CSI model today, while others argue that the spinoffs lack the institutional depth and deal flow of the mother ship. Join Daniel and Shawn as they assess which of these mini-Constellations has the most compelling setup, and whether any of them deserve a spot in the portfolio.
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:12 - Why smaller VMS companies are interesting 00:09:23 - How the law of large numbers shifts CSU’s focus 00:11:04 - About Topicus and why it's the closest copy of CSU 00:14:57 - Why VMS is so attractive for acquirers 00:31:13 - Lumine and its focus on the media and communication vertical 00:44:16 - Sygnity and its new chapter 01:03:51 - Asseco Poland and why it might be a the next Topicus 01:11:40 - Whether Shawn and Daniel add a Mini Constellation to the portfolio
*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.
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- Outsiders’ Corner Asseco Writeup.
- Outsider’s Corner Asseco Writeup No.2.
- Alankrit Capital Sygnity Writeup.
- Seeking Winners Lumine Writeup.
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