How Prediction Markets Work

Why are media companies like CNN and Substack joining forces with prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi?

Both Polymarket and Kalshi have been all over the news and editorial pages: will these markets be a blight of insider trading and foreign interference? The next step on the slippery slope to online gambling addiction? Should we really be able to bet on kidnapping, war, the timing of someone else's death? 

But thanks to recent partnerships between big media and the prediction market companies, Polymarket and Kalshi are moving from being the subject of headlines to the co-creators of those headlines.

Up until last week this was mostly an American game that Canadians could surreptitiously play through VPNs. Then it was announced that Canadian fintech company Wealthsimple, cleared regulatory hurdles to bring the markets to its millions of existing customers, bringing the tech to the masses.

Gemma Boothroyd brings us the story.

Host: Jesse Brown

Credits: Gemma Boothroyd (Reporter), Tristan Capacchione (Audio Editor and Technical Producer), Bruce Thorson (Senior Producer), max collins (Director of Audio), Jesse Brown (Editor and Publisher)

Fact checking by Julian Abraham

Additional music by Audio Network 

More information:

• Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic won't return to normal for months, Kalshi bettors predict — CNBC 
• "Controversial" predictions trading model could let you profit from real-world outcomes. — Global news
• NHL player poll: As sports betting increases, so do harassing messages — and Venmo requests — The Athletic
• Polymarket gamblers threaten Israeli journalist over missile strike story | Israel | — The Guardian
• MLB further embraces sports betting in deal with prediction platform Polymarket — The Athletic
• Polymarket and Dow Jones, Publisher of The Wall Street Journal, Announce Exclusive Prediction Market Partnership — Dow Jones
• Power Corporation Announces Additional Investment in Wealthsimple — Power Corporation
• Betting on the Gatorade color? A former company executive reveals how it’s selected — The Athletic

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