Value and Risks of Prediction Markets

(0:00) Bestie intros

(0:23) AI updates: On-prem comeback, token budgets surpass salaries

(19:19) Prediction markets: Super Bowl insider trading, how to police?

(28:44) All-In Liquidity: The ultimate investor conference

(32:48) CBO report: Death spiral, growth opportunity, or golden age?

(48:06) State of the economy and US jobs

(1:03:22) Ferrari's fully electric car goes viral

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Intro Music Credit:

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https://x.com/yung_spielburg

Intro Video Credit:

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Referenced in the show:

https://hbr.org/2026/02/ai-doesnt-reduce-work-it-intensifies-it?ab=HP-latest-text-3

https://x.com/mattshumer_/status/2021256989876109403

https://x.com/Jason/status/2021272988100984862

https://x.com/chamath/status/2022009107964899755

https://x.com/chamath/status/2021991383327027322

https://lobstertank.co/?v=1

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-02/61882-Executive-Summary.pdf

https://www.covers.com/industry/prediction-markets-sportsbooks-super-bowl-nevadabetting-handle-february-2026

https://defirate.com/news/insider-trading-claims-hit-super-bowl-prediction-markets/

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israeli-soldiers-accused-of-using-polymarket-to-bet-on-strikes-72d53012

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SzuvVcH2amc

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-02/61882-Executive-Summary.pdf

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYONGDA188S

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S

https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/2021608233866027065

https://www.ice.gov/news/releases/asplundh-tree-experts-co-pays-largest-civil-settlement-agreement-ever-levied-ice

https://www.justice.gov/usao-edpa/pr/asplundh-tree-expert-co-charged-recruiting-hiring-and-employing-unauthorized-aliens

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/tree-company-pay-record-fine-immigration-practices-n805756

https://www.kff.org/racial-equity-and-health-policy/kff-la-times-survey-of-immigrants/#d53efe98-31a4-48f1-944f-b1b1aff36c06