A concrete U.S. decline scenario

The most important political question in the age of advanced AI might not be who wins elections. It might be whether elections continue to matter at all.

That’s the view of Rose Hadshar, researcher at Forethought, who believes we could see extreme, AI-enabled power concentration without a coup or dramatic ‘end of democracy’ moment.

She foresees something more insidious: an elite group with access to such powerful AI capabilities that the normal mechanisms for checking elite power — law, elections, public pressure, the threat of strikes — cease to have much effect. Those mechanisms could continue to exist on paper, but become ineffectual in a world where humans are no longer needed to execute even the largest-scale projects.

Almost nobody wants this to happen — but we may find ourselves unable to prevent it.

If AI disrupts our ability to make sense of things, will we even notice power getting severely concentrated, or be able to resist it? Once AI can substitute for human labour across the economy, what leverage will citizens have over those in power? And what does all of this imply for the institutions we’re relying on to prevent the worst outcomes?

Rose has answers, and they’re not all reassuring.

But she’s also hopeful we can make society more robust against these dynamics. We’ve got literally centuries of thinking about checks and balances to draw on. And there are some interventions she’s excited about — like building sophisticated AI tools for making sense of the world, or ensuring multiple branches of government have access to the best AI systems.

Rose discusses all of this, and more, with host Zershaaneh Qureshi in today’s episode.

Links to learn more, video, and full transcript: https://80k.info/rh

This episode was recorded on December 18, 2025.

Chapters:

• Cold open (00:00:00)
• Who's Rose Hadshar? (00:01:05)
• Three dynamics that could reshape political power in the AI era (00:02:37)
• AI gives small groups the productive power of millions (00:12:49)
• Dynamic 1: When a software update becomes a power grab (00:20:41)
• Dynamic 2: When AI labour means governments no longer need their citizens (00:31:20)
• How democracy could persist in name but not substance (00:45:15)
• Dynamic 3: When AI filters our reality (00:54:54)
• Good intentions won't stop power concentration (01:08:27)
• Slower-moving worlds could still get scary (01:23:57)
• Why AI-powered tyranny will be tough to topple (01:31:53)
• How power concentration compares to "gradual disempowerment" (01:38:18)
• Some interventions are cross-cutting — and others could backfire (01:43:54)
• What fighting back actually looks like (01:55:15)
• Why power concentration researchers should avoid getting too "spicy" (02:04:10)
• Why the "Manhattan Project" approach should worry you — but truly international projects might not be safe either (02:09:18)
• Rose wants to keep humans around! (02:12:06)

Video and audio editing: Dominic Armstrong, Milo McGuire, Luke Monsour, and Simon Monsour
Music: CORBIT
Coordination, transcripts, and web: Nick Stockton and Katy Moore