Analysis of the Q4 2025 U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index
Supply Chain Now
National Trends: Capacity Shrinkage and Cost Pressure
Panel discusses shrinking capacity, modest volume rebound, and shipper spending outpacing volumes nationally.
As the freight market tightens and costs rise, supply chain leaders must plan ahead, strengthen carrier ties, and stay agile.
In this episode of Supply Chain Now, Scott Luton and special guest host Karin Bursa sit down with Bobby Holland of U.S. Bank and Nick Palmucci of Ferguson Enterprises to discuss the latest U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index for Q4 2025. They unpack what “freight market tightening” looks like in practice, with capacity shrinking, shipper spend climbing, and regional performance moving in different directions, from strength in the Northeast to weakness in the Southwest.
They also get into what’s driving demand shifts and cost pressure, including changes in consumer behavior, softer manufacturing signals, and uncertainty that keeps teams on their toes. Along the way, they share practical moves leaders can make right now, such as building a three-year roadmap, reducing spreadsheet dependency, locking in bids earlier, and operating like a shipper of choice when capacity gets tight. The result is a grounded look at what the data shows, what shippers are experiencing, and how to turn both into better decisions.
Jump into the conversation:
(00:00) Intro
(03:38) Warm-up questions for the panel
(06:54) Tightening capacity and rising costs
(11:46) Q4 national view: lower capacity, higher costs
(15:23) West: softer volumes, higher spend
(19:25) Southwest: brief rebound, costs climb
(21:56) Midwest: modest gains, mixed demand
(24:51) Northeast: strongest growth, higher rates
(28:13) Southeast: volumes down, muted spend
(30:32) Consumer confidence and freight demand
(31:46) Leading through uncertainty: roadmap and tech
(40:36) What’s ahead: capacity and shipper-of-choice strategy
Additional Links & Resources:
- Download the latest edition of the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index: https://www.usbank.com/corporate-and-commercial-banking/industry-expertise/transportation/freight-payment-insights.html?ecid=OTHE_80042
- Connect with Karin Bursa: https://www.linkedin.com/in/karinbursa
- Connect with Bobby Holland: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bobby-holland-4a9355/
- Learn more about U.S. Bank: https://www.usbank.com/index.html
- Connect with Nick Palmucci: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nick-palmucci/
- Learn more about Ferguson: https://www.ferguson.com
- Learn more about Ferguson Home: https://www.fergusonhome.com
- Learn more about Ferguson Corporate: https://corporate.ferguson.com
- Learn more about our hosts: https://supplychainnow.com/about
- Learn more about Supply Chain Now: https://supplychainnow.com
- Watch and listen to more Supply Chain Now episodes here: https://supplychainnow.com/program/supply-chain-now
- Subscribe to Supply Chain Now on your favorite platform: https://supplychainnow.com/join
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This episode was hosted by Scott Luton and Karin Bursa and produced by Trisha Cordes, Joshua Miranda, and Amanda Luton. For additional information, please visit our dedicated show page at: https://supplychainnow.com/analysis-q4-2025-us-bank-freight-payment-index-1552
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