In this macro discussion, Jay sits down with Grant Williams and Luke Gromen to unpack the real implications of escalating conflict in the Middle East. The conversation explores the gap between official narratives and on-the-ground realities, the fragility of supply chains, and the risk of cascading financial stress across global markets. They also examine historical parallels like the Suez Crisis and what all of this could mean for the future of the U.S. dollar and global monetary order.
Luke Gromen:
https://x.com/LukeGromen
https://fftt-llc.com/
Grant Williams:
https://x.com/ttmygh
https://www.grant-williams.com/
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00:00 – Intro
03:37 – The Core Thesis: Everything Hinges on Hormuz
05:43 – Military Power vs Reality: Why It Hasn’t Been Reopened
08:01 – Propaganda, Fog of War & Information Breakdown
10:40 – Investor Strategy: Trade It or Stay Out
12:15 – Who Wins & Who Loses in This Conflict
18:55 – Russia, China & the Expanding Conflict
23:30 – Why This Could Escalate
27:02 – Global Fragility: Food, Energy & Population Risk
33:14 – How a Global Economic Collapse Could Cascade
39:24 – Bond Market Signals & Policy Limitations
41:34 – Correlation Breakdown: Why 60/40 Fails Here
43:08 – The Suez Crisis Parallel Explained
47:40 – A Potential “Suez Moment” for the U.S.
51:26 – Shift in Warfare: Missiles, Drones vs Naval Power
57:39 – What Replaces the Dollar?
1:00:30 – Petro-Yuan, Gold Settlement & New Trade Systems
1:09:12 - Is This Gold Bull Run Durable?
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