Risks of S&P-only passive investing

Today we have your 2026 predictions. We also cover the volatile 2025 year-end and share the extreme moves in precious metals and global geopolitical shocks as a case study for how investors should think: not politically or emotionally, but by watching price action and sector reactions. Low holiday liquidity amplified market swings, but that real signals came from how energy, materials, small caps, and international markets responded. We also think that despite macro unease, debt overhangs, and geopolitical reshuffling, the data still point to a broadly bullish environment, with diversification, attention to relative performance, and humility toward market signals being far more important than predictions.

We discuss...

• Precious metals led early-year performance, with platinum, silver, and gold behaving very differently despite being in the same sector.
• Investors should respond to global events by asking how markets interpret them, not by reacting to political narratives.
• The U.S. seizure of Venezuela's president is a geopolitical shock with significant implications for energy markets and global power dynamics.
• Oil service and infrastructure companies briefly surged as markets discounted future Venezuelan production, though sustainability remains uncertain.
• China is a key indirect loser due to rising effective energy costs and margin pressure in its low-margin industrial economy.
• Geopolitical moves are increasingly overt, signaling a reshuffling of the global financial and political order.
• Have caution because investor intuition is often wrong, and there are historical examples where markets moved opposite of popular expectations.
• Price action was repeatedly emphasized as the best indicator of what informed capital is actually doing.
• Early 2026 performance showed leadership from small caps, microcaps, and value stocks rather than mega-cap technology.
• Materials, industrials, and energy outperformed in the first week, while tech, utilities, and communications lagged.
• The "Magnificent 7" were noted as early underperformers, challenging the assumption that they always lead markets.
• Defense stocks strengthened following signals of increased U.S. military spending.
• Healthcare and other previously beaten-down sectors were flagged as areas worth watching.
• Be caution against passive overreliance on the S&P 500 due to concentration risk and historical periods of long underperformance.
• While risks are elevated, market signals remain broadly bullish and investors should stay adaptive rather than predictive.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/https://moneytreepodcast.com/2026-predictions-781