Outlook for long US yields and term premium

Greg Peters oversees $1.2 trillion of fixed income investment as the co-CIO of Fixed Income at PGIM, and in this episode of The Master Investor Podcast offers a bond investing masterclass from the basics to the factors driving his current positioning.

Greg breaks down how he analyses long-term government debt – including debt sustainability, growth outlook, central bank independence and the rule of law – and why US Treasuries still enjoy a unique safe-haven status versus markets like the UK, France and Japan, even if he increasingly thinks the direction of travel is higher for long term US bond yields. 

Despite challenges for sovereign bonds, he sees more value there than in credit with spreads at historical lows. He outlines the key factors he looks for when assessing corporate bonds and how company analysis differs for an equity investor compared to a debt investor. He also explores the way in which an equity investor plays for the upside and bond investors limit the downside, and the key factor for a debt investor:free cash flow.

As  Greg explains, this is why he worries about the market happily lending money to the hyperscalers for their AI build out, which is driving many of the biggest companies in the world to flip suddenly from being incredibly safe to free cash flow negative. He also discusses the head scratching and concerning decision for them to fund so much of this investment via debt, often held off balance sheets via SPV’s, rather than by equity. 

Greg shares his framework for thinking about inflation in the AI era, why he prefers taking duration risk closer to the front end of yield curves, and his overarching advice to investors: stay humble, abandon point forecasts, and build scenario-based models that recognise just how wide the cone of outcomes really is.

You can watch the full video on The Master Investor Podcast YouTube channel

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