Uncertain Outcomes of the Iran Strike

“I don’t think we’re sleepwalking, because people have striven to be as thoughtful as possible. In some ways, they’ve been too thoughtful. We’re paralysed, in fact, by our risk awareness.” — Christopher Clark

It’s 1830 in East Prussia. The city of Königsberg still bathed in the amber glow of the late Enlightenment—at least in the minds of people who’d never been there. But that glow, it goes without saying, is illusionary. The greatest of all Königsberg citizens, the illustrious 18th century philosopher Immanuel Kant is dead. Napoleon’s shattered army limped west back through the city two decades earlier after its failed invasion of Russia. The place had slipped into a sad provinciality, living off 18th century nostalgia. And then two Lutheran preachers, so-called “Muckers”, get accused of running a sex cult.

Christopher Clark—Regius Professor of History at Cambridge, author of the brilliant The Sleepwalkers and Revolutionary Spring—has been brooding on this story for thirty years. His short new book, A Scandal in Königsberg, is a Prussian microhistory with global ambition. The scandal, he says, was entirely fabricated: no sexual transgressions ever occurred. The two Muckers were convicted, stripped (so to speak) of office, and imprisoned, then exonerated on appeal – giving this case more historical significance than a mere sex scandal.

What made them targets? They were evangelical in a city that prized Kantian rationalism. They followed a dead mystic who believed creation was born from two cosmic spheres—fire and water—which sounded like dangerously mystical in the scientific age of steam power. And the lead preacher, Johann Ebel, committed the unforgivable sin of listening to women confess their unhappy marriages. In a pre-Freudian central Europe, Ebel became the confidant the men of Königsberg couldn’t abide.

And then there’s Iran — far from 19th century East Prussia, but on all of our minds right now. At the end of our conversation, I couldn’t resist asking Clark if he thinks we are sleepwalking into another catastrophic world war. He doesn’t think so. The problem in 1914 was a failure of imagination, he says. Today, Clark argues, we’re actually paralysed by a fear of risk. The Iran invasion is certainly stress testing the international system. But the one thing most people agree on, Clark notes with characteristic dryness, is that nobody much regrets any damage done to the regime of the Mullahs. Even if, as he warns, we still don’t know whether decision to invade Iran was smart or reckless. The Mullahs, at least, aren’t quite Muckers.

Five Takeaways

•       This Was a Scandal Without a Transgression: Most scandals expose something real. The Mucker scandal was different: the sexual allegations were entirely invented. Two clergymen were stripped of office, fined, and imprisoned—then exonerated on appeal when a sharp young lawyer proved the charges were fabrications. The process of invention, Clark argues, is more interesting than any transgression could have been.

•       Steam Was the AI of the 1830s: The two preachers at the center of the scandal were followers of a dead mystic who believed creation was born from two cosmic spheres—fire and water. In the age of steam, that sounded like science. Königsbergers only saw their first steam engine in the 1820s. New technology makes old ideas feel prophetic—a pattern we might recognise.

•       The Preacher Women Loved: Johann Ebel attracted women from the best families of Königsberg because he listened to them. There were no couples counsellors, no psychoanalysts—only clergymen. Ebel was non-judgmental about sexual life within marriage. The men around him found this intolerable. The scandal was driven not by what Ebel did, but by what he represented: a threat to patriarchal authority.

•       We’re Not Sleepwalking—We’re Paralysed: Clark wrote the book on how Europe sleepwalked into 1914. He doesn’t think the analogy holds today. The problem in 1914 was a failure of imagination—nobody could see the other side’s perspective. Today we’re hyper-aware of risk, especially nuclear risk. If anything, we’re too thoughtful—paralysed by what we know rather than blind to what we don’t.

•       Iran and the Crumple Zone: The invasion of Iran is testing the edges of the international system. Clark notes that both Putin and the US-Israel alliance have chosen targets without nuclear weapons—probing the crumple zone rather than the core. The danger is an unintentional transition to nuclear exchange. And we still don’t know whether the decision to strike Iran was smart or reckless.

About the Guest

Christopher Clark is Regius Professor of History at the University of Cambridge and a fellow of St Catharine’s College. He is the author of The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914, Revolutionary Spring: Fighting for a New World, 1848–1849, Iron Kingdom, Time and Power, and the new book A Scandal in Königsberg. He was knighted in 2015 for services to Anglo-German relations.

References

Books and references mentioned:

•       The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914 by Christopher Clark

•       Revolutionary Spring: Fighting for a New World, 1848–1849 by Christopher Clark

•       Immanuel Kant (1724–1804) and the Enlightenment heritage of Königsberg

•       Leonhard Euler and the Seven Bridges of Königsberg—the birth of modern topology

•       The Coming Storm by Odd Arne Westad—referenced in the closing discussion on sleepwalking into war

About Keen On America

Nobody asks more awkward questions than the Anglo-American writer and filmmaker Andrew Keen. In Keen On America, Andrew brings his pointed Transatlantic wit to making sense of the United States—hosting daily interviews about the history and future of this now venerable Republic. With nearly 2,800 episodes since the show launched on TechCrunch in 2010, Keen On America is the most prolific intellectual interview show in the history of podcasting.

Website

Substack