In this episode, Mercury shares his journey from early crypto curiosity to becoming a systematic trader focused on momentum, carry, and volatility strategies. We dive into the differences between discretionary and systematic trading, how he builds and tests models, and why many edges in crypto are really risk premia rather than pure alpha. Mercury explains infrastructure for running strategies across perp DEXs, volatility targeting, portfolio construction, and the realities of scaling capital. The conversation also touches on prediction markets, the role of AI in research, and how traders can survive in a market where edges constantly decay.
00:00 Intro, Mercury’s background, 2017 mania, early gains and 90% drawdown lessons
06:03 College dropout, going all-in on trading, March 2020 liquidation and ego reset
16:49 Rebuilding the system, scrapping indicators, trend-following foundation
23:24 Social media vs reality, engagement farming, why most traders sabotage themselves
30:12 Revenge trading, respecting trends, curing causes instead of treating symptoms
41:11 Discretion vs quants debate, adapting to ranges, why signals aren’t equal
52:15 The “free money” mindset, Trump coin trade, opportunity vs FOMO psychology
01:02:58 Bull market myths, skill evolution, why every cycle feels underwhelming in hindsight
