Prediction markets vs. polling

Sam Stein, Sonny Bunch, and Ben Parker give their takes on a Wall Street Journal story about a DC tax policy expert who made nearly $500,000 betting that Elon Musk wouldn’t actually cut federal spending, a wager that turned out to be almost free money. They break down how the bet worked, why it was such a lock, how political betting markets create openings for insider trading, and just how absurd some of these political wagers have become.

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