Risk Aversion Since the Financial Crisis

Matt Clifford and Ian Hogarth believe Europe is roughly a decade behind the United States in building the technology companies that will define the next era. But they also believe that the gap can be closed, and that the UK and Europe could even leapfrog America, if political leaders and the public make fundamentally different choices.

I sat down with Matt, co-founder of Entrepreneurs First and architect of the UK Government's AI strategy, and Ian, co-founder of Plural and Chair of the UK's AI Foundation Model Taskforce, to talk about what Europe needs to do to save itself from stagnation. We get into why Europe's risk aversion is a bigger threat than American superiority, why career politicians won't survive in the new multipolar world, and why the pro-growth movement is losing the culture war — and how to win it back.

Extended Show Notes: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/2dc713af-826a-43dc-a2ad-91ad00ee6134

Transcript (with helpful links!): https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/00092f0e-3f30-473f-a773-d560724b3dc5

Chapters:

00:00 Intro

01:01 The Compounding Effect: Why the US Is Winning

03:50 Jumpstarting European Growth

06:48 We Must Risk Failure to Succeed

09:30 Crisis as Catalyst

12:21 The Multipolar Moment

14:31 AI Nationalism

18:41 Career Politicians Won’t Survive the New Global Order

21:32 The Apollo Moonshot for the UK

25:26 The UK Has a De-Growth Cultural Problem

28:32 Growth ≠ Good

33:55 Prediction Markets as Gambling Companies

36:23 Political Leaders Should Not Be Neutral About the Good Life

37:41 UK and Europe: Geography as Destiny

39:33 The Next Pendulum Swings for Europe

Matt Clifford is the co-founder and Chair of Entrepreneurs First, the world's leading talent investor, and Chair of ARIA, the UK's Advanced Research and Invention Agency. He authored the UK Government's AI Opportunities Action Plan and served as the Prime Minister's Adviser on AI. He was named to the TIME100 list of most influential people in AI and was awarded a CBE for services to AI in 2024.

Ian Hogarth is co-founder and partner at Plural, an early-stage venture capital firm, and served as Chair of the UK Government's AI Foundation Model Taskforce. He co-founded Songkick and was named to the TIME100 list of most influential people in AI in 2023.

Matt on X: https://x.com/matthewclifford

Ian on X: https://x.com/soundboy

Matt's Website: https://www.matthewclifford.com/

Ian's Website: https://www.ianhogarth.com/

Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next.

Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12

Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/

Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City.

Head to nebular.vc for more info.