Energy shock vs growth: when inflation flips to recession

Chief Macro Strategist at Clocktower Group, Eric Wallerstein, explores how shifting geopolitics, Trump-era monetary policy, and structural economic forces are reshaping global macro. We cover tariffs, the dollar, Iran-driven market shocks, Fed balance sheet strategy, and the future of bank regulation. Along the way, we also unpack AI productivity, repo market fragility, and why Latin America could be the next macro frontier. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(02:48) Eric's Wild Year At the Fed

(07:26) Tariffs And The Role of the Dollar

(14:15) Iran War Market Fallout

(19:46) The Energy Shock vs Growth & Rates

(24:55) Unpacking The "Donroe Doctrine"

(31:29) Ads (Coinbase, Arkham)

(33:12) Buying The Americas

(35:56) Fixing The Fed Balance Sheet

(40:29) Repairing Repo

(43:23) The Coming Warsh Era

(47:56) Productivity Growth vs The Fed

(54:00) The Fed's Duration Plan & The Treasury-Fed Accord

(58:06) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

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