Separating direct shock from knock-on effects

Over the last few weeks, the conflict in the Middle East between the US, Israel, and Iran has continued longer than expected. What may seem like a geopolitical event is already having real economic consequences.

This episode of Open Dialogue focuses on the economic side of the conflict. From the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz to the possibility of a global energy shortfall, the conversation unpacks how closely the world economy is tied to this region.

But this is not just about oil prices today.

A potential supply shock can ripple through supply chains, impact global growth, and influence inflation, currencies, and trade balances. For India, this raises important questions around energy security, the current account deficit, and overall economic stability.

Speakers –

Sameer Shetty: Group Executive, Digital Banking & Strategic Programs, Axis Bank

Neelkanth Mishra: Chief Economist, Axis Bank & Head of Global Research, Axis Capital

In this conversation, we break down:

• Why a disruption in global energy flows can have outsized economic impact

• How crude oil shocks translate into inflation and growth risks

• What second-order effects mean for businesses and supply chains

• How India could be affected in the short and long term

This is a deeper look at the crude oil crisis and its broader implications, beyond headlines and immediate market reactions.

Watch the full episode to understand how global events translate into real economic impact.

🔔 Like, comment, and subscribe to stay updated on conversations that break down the forces shaping the economy and markets — only on Open Dialogue by Axis Bank.

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