Why Uncertainty Is Bad for Decision Making

Do you struggle to cope with uncertainty - about the effects of the pandemic, about your career, about your income, your relationship, and God knows what else? The Academic Imperfectionist is here to break it all down for you. You're going to learn:

1. That it's completely normal to feel stressed and anxious in the face of uncertainty;
2. That the reason uncertainty is stressful is due not only to the possibility of some nasty outcome that you fear, but also to how anticipating it makes you feel;
3. That coping effectively with uncertainty requires two separate strategies: one to try to avert the nasty outcome that you fear, and another to address the stress that anticipating that outcome causes you;
4. How to start implementing both those strategies right now.

Here are the publications mentioned in the episode:

Anderson, E. C., Carleton, R. N., Diefenbach, M., and Han, P. K. J. 2019: ‘The relationship between uncertainty and affect’, Frontiers in Psychology 10.

Loewenstein, G. 1987: ‘Anticipation and the valuation of delayed consumption’, The Economic Journal 97/387: 666–84.

Lovallo, D. and Kahneman, D. 2000: ‘Living with uncertainty: attractiveness and resolution timing’, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 13/2: 179–90. 

And here's Harvard Law School's guide to BATNAs.

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