Deterrence, public opinion, and Taiwan's danger

Chuck Todd explores whether the United States is on the verge of a new reform era — and argues that the signs are more promising than you might think. Starting with a constitutional amendment now circulating in Congress to nullify presidential pardons, backed by both a Maryland Democrat and Republican Don Bacon to give it bipartisan credibility, Todd makes the case that the pardon power has been so thoroughly abused — from Biden's preemptive pardons giving Trump political cover, to Trump intermediaries allegedly being paid for sold pardons — that the kind of structural corruption requiring structural repair is now undeniable. Todd puts this moment in historical context, drawing parallels to the reform cascades that produced the 16th Amendment (born from rampant income inequality), the 17th Amendment (born from a corruption scandal involving the sale of Senate seats), and the 19th Amendment (born when democracy itself felt like it was slipping away), while cautioning that not every reform era gets it right — the 18th Amendment and Prohibition being a case study in moral panic and overcorrection. His broader argument is that reform eras tend to cascade once they begin, that the tools to demand a better democratic structure already exist, and that if Congress shifts from debating revenge to debating reforms, that alone represents meaningful progress.

Then, Ambassador Robert Blackwill — a towering figure in American foreign policy who served under Presidents Reagan, George H.W. Bush, and George W. Bush, and is the only person to have served as both U.S. Ambassador to India and Deputy National Security Advisor — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a sweeping and sobering conversation about America's position in the world. Blackwill, currently the Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of Lost Decade: The U.S. Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power, argues that the U.S. urgently needs to recapture the kind of bipartisan foreign policy consensus that defined the Cold War era. He calls China the most dangerous rival America has ever faced, warning that Beijing is actively preparing its military for a potential Taiwan invasion — a threat that has only intensified amid China's massive late-2025 military exercises around the island and growing questions about whether the Trump administration would intervene to defend Taipei.

The conversation spans the full scope of the global chessboard, from NATO's potential collapse — an especially timely concern as the Pentagon has moved to scale back U.S. participation in NATO advisory groups and Defense Secretary Hegseth skipped the latest defense ministers' meeting in Brussels — to why any Ukraine peace deal will inevitably reward Russian aggression, to Trump's puzzling warmth toward adversaries like China and Russia while publicly disparaging European allies. Blackwill warns that Trump is driving swing countries like India into China's orbit, and that the U.S. isn't headed for a multipolar world but a bipolar one, with China gaining ground across Africa, South America, and Asia. With the 2028 presidential race on the horizon, Blackwill makes a forceful case that the next generation of candidates must present a clear, durable vision for America's role in the world — before it's too late.

Finally, Chuck gives his reaction the Munich Security Conference, offers up his ToddCast Top 5 “Most Absurd Awards Created To Soothe Trump’s Ego” and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:15 A constitutional amendment circulating to nullify presidential pardons

03:45 We may be seeing a structural shift at a time that it’s needed

04:30 Reform eras happen when both sides decide rules need to be tightened

05:00 We’ve seen governors sell pardons, nothing like what Trump’s doing

06:00 Trump intermediaries are getting paid for sold pardons

07:15 Biden’s pardons basically gave Trump license for his corrupt pardons

08:30 For institutional change, you need bad actors on both sides

09:30 Maryland congressman introduced amendment to override pardons

10:15 Don Bacon signed on to endorse amendment, makes it bipartisan

11:15 Nullification threshold is set pretty high

12:30 17th amendment was born out of political corruption scandal

14:15 16th amendment born out of rampant income inequality 

15:30 19th amendment came when it felt like democracy was slipping away

16:15 18th amendment came from moral panic, was later repealed

17:00 Reforms can be necessary, some are an overcorrection

18:00 Structural corruption requires structural repair, requires amendment

19:15 Other areas of structural reform that could gain traction

21:00 Reform eras don’t stop with one thing, tend to cascade

22:45 We have the tools to demand a better structure for democracy

24:30 If congress is debating reforms instead of revenge, that’s progress

33:15 Ambassador Robert Blackwill joins the Chuck ToddCast

35:15 America needs to recapture its cold war “bipartisan consensus”

35:45 Alliances contributed to American strength

37:15 Why were assumptions of China joining the world wrong?

39:15 China is the most dangerous rival America has ever had

40:30 Should we have developed an Asian security pact sooner?

42:15 Marxism tells China that for it to be safe, it must lead the world

43:45 Liberal internationalism has gotten weaker in its expression

44:45 What should we make of Xi purging his military leadership?

46:00 U.S. intelligence penetration of China has been limited

47:45 China is working very hard to prepare military for Taiwan invasion

49:00 Worse outcome: Let China invade Taiwan or fight them over it?

50:00 Biden clearly said he’d intervene on behalf of Taiwan

50:45 Trump doesn’t seem inclined to defend Taiwan

51:45 China’s military isn’t battle tested, invasion is a huge risk

52:45 How have Iraq/Afghanistan informed the debate over defending Taiwan?

54:00 A majority of Americans wouldn’t support war with China over Taiwan

55:30 What would you advise next President to do with Taiwan if no war by 2028?

56:15 Trump is unique, will take most of “Trumpism” with him when he leaves

57:45 Debate after Trump will be between nationalism & liberal internationalism

59:15 Tough to know what Democrats strategy for role in the world is

1:00:15 How do you rebuild alliances in a more durable way?

1:02:45 The American people don’t support the admins “gangster” foreign policy

1:04:30 If Europe is separated from the U.S., they’ll truly go on their own

1:05:00 Trump says nothing positive about Europe, but praises China & Russia

1:07:15 Hard to believe Donald Trump would abide Article 5

1:08:00 NATO could collapse if Trump doesn’t respond to action against Baltics

1:08:45 Taiwan remains greatest risk for the duration of Trump’s term

1:09:45 Any peace deal in Ukraine will reward Russia’s aggression

1:10:30 Ukraine remains determined not to lose their statehood

1:11:15 Putin knows he’ll never have a friendlier American president than Trump

1:12:15 Intelligence sharing is most valuable thing America provides Ukraine

1:14:15 Trump can do so much more to rupture our alliances in 3 years

1:15:15 Europe is more traumatized by what Trump says than what he does

1:16:15 What to make of Marco Rubio’s role in the administration?

1:18:15 Rubio has to perform an incredible balancing act

1:20:15 Trump is driving “swing countries” like India into China’s arms

1:20:45 We aren’t headed for a multipolar world, it will be bipolar

1:21:45 Partners want consistency from America, based on strength

1:24:15 2028 candidates need to present a vision for America’s role

1:25:45 China ahead of America in Africa, South America & Asia…not Europe

1:26:15 China isn’t ahead yet, but trends are bad

1:27:45 America’s contempt for the third world has been detrimental

1:29:30 Trump’s approach to the world won’t change in the next 3 years

1:31:15 We need a consensus on America’s role in the world

1:32:00 Reaction to Munich security conference

1:32:30 Rubio sees himself as a bridge to the rules based order & Trump

1:33:45 Trump will easily throw Rubio or Vance under the bus

1:35:00 AOC didn’t seem to have the most prepared answers in Munich

1:36:30 The right wants to dunk on AOC, when Trump is far more ignorant

1:37:45 We hold political opponents to far higher standards than our own team

1:38:15 ToddCast Top 5 Most Absurd Awards Created To Soothe Trump’s Ego

1:39:00 #5 McDonald’s french fry certification pin

1:39:45 #4 Undisputed Champion of Clean Coal award

1:40:45 #3 FIFA Peace Prize

1:41:45 #2 The Tim Cook Special

1:42:45 #1 NRSC Champion For Freedom Bowl

1:44:15 Giving out these awards is a terrible look

1:44:45 The actual Nobel Peace Prize given by Machado did not qualify for list

1:45:45 Trump is desperate for historic accolades

1:46:30 Ask Chuck

1:46:45 Will we live to see a Democratic elected statewide in Tennessee?

1:53:00 Loved history lesson on importance of 1848, could you expand on it?

1:56:45 What rights from the Bill of Rights has Trump NOT violated?

1:58:45 Why aren’t SCOTUS potential retirements getting more attention?

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