Reflexivity and Momentum in Bitcoin

Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy, speaks with Beimnet Abebe of Galaxy Trading, who previously warned that bitcoin was entering a bear phase. Abebe, a market strategist focused on macro and crypto structure, reiterates his view that bitcoin is likely to test its 200-week moving average near $60,000 amid deteriorating liquidity and weakening risk appetite.

The discussion situates crypto within broader market stress. Abebe argues that equity momentum has stalled, software valuations are vulnerable to AI disruption, and marginal buyers are retreating. He points to cracks in the labor market, softer consumer sentiment, and rising odds of Fed cuts driven by employment weakness rather than renewed stimulus. Thorn challenges whether bitcoin’s failure to track gold undermines the “digital gold” thesis, while Abebe maintains that reflexivity and improved risk-reward at lower levels could reset positioning.

What’s Happening

Abebe frames the recent bitcoin drawdown as a structural breakdown, not a transient dip. Liquidity has thinned, sentiment has turned, and equities—particularly software and AI-exposed names—are repricing. He highlights slowing retail flows, de-dollarization pressures, and labor data signaling softness. The pair debate whether AI threatens software moats and how that repricing feeds into broader risk assets, including crypto.

Why It Matters

If equities correct further and labor weakens, the Fed’s dual mandate could tilt toward easing, altering fixed income and risk allocations. For bitcoin, a move toward the 200-week average would historically mark a value zone with asymmetric upside. The conversation underscores how tightly crypto remains linked to macro liquidity and equity sentiment.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin’s market structure has weakened, increasing odds of a test near $60,000.

• Equity repricing, especially in software, reflects AI-driven moat erosion concerns.

• Labor softness may push the Fed toward cuts despite inflation above target.

• Lower bitcoin levels could offer asymmetric risk-reward for long-term allocators.

Participants, along with Galaxy, hold a financial interest in Bitcoin (BTC). Galaxy regularly engages in buying and selling BTC, including hedging transactions, for its own proprietary accounts and on behalf of its counterparties. Galaxy also provides services to vehicles that invest in BTC.  If the value of such assets increases, those vehicles may benefit, and Galaxy’s service fees may increase accordingly. The valuation in this communication is based on technical, fundamental, and market analysis and not on any formal valuation method. For more information, please refer to Galaxy’s public filings and statements. Cryptocurrencies, including BTC, are inherently volatile and risky and ultimate market movements may not align with this statement.

For additional risks related to digital assets, please refer to the risk factors contained in filings Galaxy Digital Inc. makes with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) from time to time, including in its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, filed with the SEC on November 10, 2025, available at ⁠www.sec.gov⁠.

  This episode was recorded on Wednesday, February 4, 2025.

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