SI393: The Illusion of Control in Modern Markets ft. Yoav Git
Top Traders Unplugged
Excess Volatility Paper Overview
Yoav introduces the paper revisiting excess volatility using a model calibrated with the EM algorithm.
Markets often appear logical in hindsight, yet behave unpredictably in real time. In this episode, Niels and Yoav explore how recent events, from geopolitical shocks to shifting narratives, reveal the limits of traditional explanations. They discuss why assets like gold and bonds no longer react as expected, how flows and positioning can dominate price action, and why dispersion across managers increases during periods of stress. The conversation also examines the role of machine learning, the impact of volatility on execution, and the challenges of managing risk in fast moving markets. At its core, this is about navigating uncertainty when structure and narrative begin to diverge.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to the series
01:19 - What is on the radar: markets and recent developments
01:19 - The EM algorithm and its relevance to machine learning
04:12 - Election narratives and unpredictability in real world outcomes
06:51 - Gold, war, and why markets react unexpectedly
09:07 - Inflation narrative vs risk off reality
14:13 - Bond equity correlation breaking down
17:29 - Fixed income volatility and regime uncertainty
24:58 - Oil curve dynamics and supply constraints
27:39 - Risk management differences between discretionary and systematic
37:23 - Market flows, positioning, and forced liquidations
41:30 - Excess volatility and what really drives markets
49:36 - Trend vs value vs noise traders explained
56:34 - Diversification, capacity, and portfolio construction
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