Using Short‑Term Models for Ten‑Year Expectations

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Ever wondered where your retirement plan's "probability of success" really comes from? In this episode, Peter pulls back the curtain on the assumptions inside Monte Carlo analysis—and explains why Plancorp anchors its projections to long-term base rates instead of short-term forecasts.

Listen now and learn:

► The three numbers that quietly drive most Monte Carlo projections

► The four common ways advisors choose capital market assumptions—and why they differ

► Why "more sophisticated" assumptions can sometimes create more error, not less

► How to think about your plan's probability of success without getting lost in the math

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

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