Dylan Patel - The Infinite Demand for Tokens, Claude Mythos, and Supply Constraints - [Invest Like the Best, EP.468]
Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Bottlenecks Spread Across the Stack
Dylan Patel walks through shortages in GPUs, memory, optics, logic, and equipment, saying nearly every constrained input is seeing higher prices or prepayments.
This is my second conversation with Dylan Patel. Dylan is the founder and CEO of SemiAnalysis, where he tracks the semiconductor supply chain and AI infrastructure buildout.
This conversation is about the supply and demand of tokens. On demand, Dylan describes something completely explosive. He explains why the frontier model is the only model anyone wants, and willingness to pay for it is nearly unbounded. His own firm has gone from tens of thousands of dollars in AI spend last year to seven million this year.
On supply, we walk through the bottlenecks across memory, logic, and fab equipment that will determine how fast any of this can scale.
We also cover Claude Mythos and what the leading labs need to do to fix their growing public perception problem.
For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.
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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best
(00:02:29) Intro: Dylan Patel
(00:03:09) Semi Analysis AI Spend: Zero to $7M
(00:05:16) Real-World Examples of Claude Code
(00:11:41) Token Demand: “Completely Explosive”
(00:14:48) Why Everyone Wants the Frontier Model
(00:15:36) Mythos: Biggest Model Capability Jump in Two Years
(00:20:54) Fear of Rapid Model Progress
(00:23:45) Robotics as the Next Demand Wave
(00:26:03) Scaling Laws & Compute Efficiency
(00:27:24) OpenAI vs. Anthropic
(00:31:33) Supply Side: Bottlenecks Across the Stack
(00:33:26) TSMC CapEx Could Cause a Shortage
(00:36:45) CPUs, ASICs, and FPGAs
(00:40:12) Tokenomics
(00:42:20) Protests & AI Backlash
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