Active vs Passive and Survivorship Bias

This special two-part session opens with Paul Merriman solo — paying tribute to Tim Ranzetta of Next Generation Personal Finance, sharing the latest numbers on state-mandated financial literacy, and walking through Daryl Bahls' quilt charts to show annual earnings invested in the S&P 500, large-cap value, small-cap blend, and small-cap value since 1928.Then Paul sits down with Christine Benz — Morningstar's Director of Personal Finance and Retirement Planning, and author of How to Retire: 20 Lessons for a Happy, Successful, and Wealthy Retirement — for a wide-ranging conversation on how to actually make a retirement portfolio last.Christine lays out her five-step plan for anyone retiring in 2030 or 2035: turbocharge savings, rethink household spending, build seven to ten years of "safer assets" for portfolio withdrawals, diversify globally, and use TIPS to protect purchasing power. She and Paul dig into how to structure fixed income (short, intermediate, TIPS), why she's cooler on REITs than she used to be, when a simple income annuity makes sense, and why alternatives rarely earn their keep.They also cover performance-chasing the S&P 500, balanced funds vs. building your own portfolio (including Paul's Wellesley/Wellington pairing for hands-off investors), how AI is starting to change the financial advice landscape, and the honest answer to "have you planned out to the day you die?" — even from a Morningstar executive.The audience Q&A covers bonds vs. T-bills, down-payment savings, the four-fund portfolio, Vanguard asset allocation for retirees, tax-efficient withdrawal sequencing, TIAA annuities, managed futures, and gold.Part of the Spring Financial Education Series hosted by the Bainbridge Community Foundation in partnership with the Merriman Financial Education Foundation.Coming up in this series: Mike Piper (April 21) and Bill Bernstein (April 28).🔗 LINKS & RESOURCES:📖 How to Retire — Christine Benz🎙️ The Long View Podcast🌐 https://www.morningstar.com/people/christine-benz📘 https://www.ngpf.org🌐 https://paulmerriman.comTIMESTAMPS:📚 PART 1 — Paul Merriman Solo0:00–Welcome from Matt Longmire2:55–Paul Merriman intro3:50–Tim Ranzetta & NGPF7:00–Financial literacy stats9:30–Why NGPF is free10:30–Ben Carlson & oil shocks13:50–Risk and Reward preview14:40–Quilt charts explained17:00–$100 since 192820:00–Quintile rankings22:30–Four-fund consistency24:00–Volatility discussion25:30–Best/worst decades🎙️ PART 2 — Christine Benz Interview27:00–Christine joins29:00–Retirement mindset31:00–Planning for 2030/203532:30–Boosting savings33:30–Lifestyle adjustments35:00–7–10 years safer assets38:00–Bond strategy40:00–Risk tiers (cash → bonds)42:00–Equity allocation44:30–TIPS importance48:00–Buy-and-hold vs timing50:00–Handling macro fears52:30–Top risks54:00–Annuities overview56:00–SPIAs & DIAs58:30–Income psychology1:02:00–More resources1:04:00–Alternatives critique1:07:30–401(k) concerns1:10:00–Investor gap1:12:00–Christine’s planQ&A:1:15:00–Bonds vs T-bills1:20:00–$95k down payment1:22:00–Four-fund portfolios1:25:00–FXAIX vs VOO1:26:00–Model portfolios1:29:00–Balanced funds1:33:00–Tax-managed funds1:34:00–Active vs passive1:39:00–Bond ETFs1:41:00–TIAA annuities1:42:30–Withdrawal strategy1:44:00–AI investing1:46:00–Future of advice1:50:00–Gold & alternatives1:52:00–Closing thoughts1:53:00–Next episode

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