Ep. 468: Irrationality with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
00:00
The 30% Chance of Rain Tomorrow
We have taught in the Western world almost everyone to read and write, more or less. That is a good way to deal with risk and uncertainty. But do you know what it means if you hear that there is a 30% chance of rain tomorrow? 30% of what? I sent my postdocs back to the home countries, in many countries in this world, downtown to ask people what they think it knows. Now are people confused? We have a large literature in psychology that likes to point out one cognitive illusion after the otherone.
Play episode from 28:37
Transcript
