Navigating Uncertainty: The Challenges of Election Polling

It’s often said that Kamala Harris’s entry into the race has transformed this campaign. But does this also mean that Harris has a real chance at changing the composition of the electorate, by bringing more low-propensity Democratic voters into the process? A new analysis finds striking surges in voter registration among Dem-leaning voter groups during the week of July 21st, after President Biden left the race and endorsed Harris. We talked to the author of that analysis’ author, Tom Bonier of the Democratic firm TargetSmart, about why he’s optimistic—but also realistic—about Harris’s chances.

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