In this macro discussion, Jay sits down with Grant Williams and Luke Gromen to unpack the real implications of escalating conflict in the Middle East. The conversation explores the gap between official narratives and on-the-ground realities, the fragility of supply chains, and the risk of cascading financial stress across global markets. They also examine historical parallels like the Suez Crisis and what all of this could mean for the future of the U.S. dollar and global monetary order.

Luke Gromen:

https://x.com/LukeGromen

https://fftt-llc.com/

Grant Williams:

https://x.com/ttmygh

https://www.grant-williams.com/

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00:00 – Intro

03:37 – The Core Thesis: Everything Hinges on Hormuz

05:43 – Military Power vs Reality: Why It Hasn’t Been Reopened

08:01 – Propaganda, Fog of War & Information Breakdown

10:40 – Investor Strategy: Trade It or Stay Out

12:15 – Who Wins & Who Loses in This Conflict

18:55 – Russia, China & the Expanding Conflict

23:30 – Why This Could Escalate

27:02 – Global Fragility: Food, Energy & Population Risk

33:14 – How a Global Economic Collapse Could Cascade

39:24 – Bond Market Signals & Policy Limitations

41:34 – Correlation Breakdown: Why 60/40 Fails Here

43:08 – The Suez Crisis Parallel Explained

47:40 – A Potential “Suez Moment” for the U.S.

51:26 – Shift in Warfare: Missiles, Drones vs Naval Power

57:39 – What Replaces the Dollar?

1:00:30 – Petro-Yuan, Gold Settlement & New Trade Systems

1:09:12 - Is This Gold Bull Run Durable?

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