Limits of historical analogies

Marko walks through his mathematical framework for how long the US-Iran conflict lasts:

(Iran's pain tolerance) - (America's punitive air campaign) - (the global response to Hormuz closure) = ?????

They dudes argue about why Iran's drone attacks are already collapsing under B-52 pressure, explain why China won't back Tehran, and warn that the real nightmare scenario isn't the straits — it's Iraq.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Mailbag Setup

(00:36) - Straits Transit Joke and SNL Banter

(01:44) - Friday Updates and Personal Chaos

(04:49) - Cuba Iran and US Moves Roundup

(06:20) - How Long Will This War Last

(07:29) - Marko's Pain Airpower Global Response Equation

(11:56) - History Lessons and Iran Deterrence

(13:16) - Where Are the Houthis

(15:53) - US Firepower and Proxy Calculus

(19:09) - Devils Advocate Iranian Endurance

(23:53) - Next Week Risks Houthis vs Iraq

(28:34) - Nightmare Scenario Land War

(31:50) - Should US Seize Kharg Island

(35:26) - Boots on Ground Politics and Mission Creep

(38:17) - Threaten Terminals and Seize Tankers

(42:05) - Straits Threats Dismissed

(43:02) - Israel Interests Explained

(45:15) - Iran Pain Tolerance Debate

(47:17) - Missile Capacity Counterpoint

(48:46) - Risk Desensitization Rant

(54:00) - Pandemic Policy Lessons

(01:02:19) - US Prep Failures Critique

(01:08:37) - China And Iran Support

(01:13:24) - Why Straits Matter Globally

(01:17:22) - Food And Fertilizer Fallout

(01:18:45) - Weekend Wrap And Signoff

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Referenced in the Show:

Heggseth Clip - https://x.com/i/status/2032458784199655784

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro