What Was the Biggest Surprise?

i think that you're one of the few people who truly nailed the fed uh... in terms of their hawkishness and more importantly also their recent shift. There was very few that went from one camp to the other but when i think about your calls in terms of timing what the fed was going to do i think you really know it's a nuanced subtle thing. You stayed on it  and then you've actually nailed the other side the shift so first of all can't tell me what people got wrong what they're getting wrong now? And how did you go about being so prescient in terms of your fed understanding well that's a lot of questions right there I would say try