Arbitrage sizing, returns, and being banned

Stefan Stadie is a professional sports trader at Kero Sports whose work sits at the intersection of equities, sports betting, and prediction markets.

After starting his trading journey in equities, Stefan evolved toward a more process-driven approach focused on price, liquidity, and market behavior. Today, his edge comes less from predicting outcomes and more from identifying mispricing, capturing inefficiencies, and operating across multiple markets in real time.

In this conversation, Stefan shares how the same principles—crowd psychology, liquidity, and price discovery—show up across different environments, from stocks to sports to decentralized prediction markets. He also walks through his transition into arbitrage and market making, how he approaches risk, and what it takes to stay disciplined when operating in fast-moving, competitive markets.

This episode offers a different lens on trading—one that challenges traditional thinking around prediction, edge, and where opportunity actually comes from.

In this episode, we explore:

·        Why trading principles can transfer across completely different markets

·        The role of liquidity and crowd behavior in shaping price

·        Moving from directional trading to arbitrage and market making

·        How mispricing creates opportunity across fragmented markets

·        The reality of being limited or banned by sportsbooks

·        Differences between traditional financial markets and emerging prediction markets

·        Managing psychology and discipline in fast-moving environments

·        Why focusing on price—not opinion—can change your approach to trading

About Stefan Stadie:

Stefan is a professional sports trader at Kero Sports, specializing in market structure, arbitrage, and market making. He also trades equities and participates in prediction markets, applying a consistent framework centered on liquidity, psychology, and price discovery across different trading environments.

Links + Resources:

·        X (Twitter):  https://x.com/BronzeBeardd

Sponsor of Chat With Traders Podcast:

 ●       Trade The Pool:  http://www.tradethepool.com

Time Stamps:

Please note: Exact times will vary depending on current ads. 

00:00 Introduction

04:39 Early life, education and entry into oil & gas
06:18 2020 oil crash and negative crude prices
08:14 Early trading career, swing trades and going full-time
09:18 Trading mistakes, position sizing and risk management
11:33 Trading during the COVID crash and learning resources
12:41 Transition to short selling and strategy shift
14:14 Liquidity events and shorting tactics
16:53 Entry into predictive markets and sports betting
18:23 Arbitrage strategies and OddsJam scanner
21:38 Bans from retail sportsbooks and joining Kiro Sports
26:37 Polymarket, peer-to-peer exchanges and crypto betting
29:04 How prices are set and market-making basics
35:32 Market-making tactics, spreads and target returns
40:31 Directional positions and daily activity in predictive markets
41:43 Parlays, selling parlays and house edge
44:10 Growth, regulation and insider-risk in prediction markets
49:20 Comparisons with financial markets: liquidity, edge and crowds
01:01:54 Gamification, responsible use, psychology and advice for newcomers
01:10:00 Closing remarks and contact information

Trading Disclaimer:

 Trading in the financial markets involves a risk of loss. Podcast episodes and other content produced by Chat With Traders are for informational or educational purposes only and do not constitute trading or investment recommendations or advice.

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