Ep. 514: Epic Behavioral Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
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The Probabilistic Game of Forecasting
When the market says a 75% chance, that means there's a 25% chance it's not going to happen. We have to get at least a sophisticated vote this as we are in thinking about batting averages of players in major league baseball or the free throw percentages of basketball player and so forth. You don't draw the inference that a forecaster is bad simply because the forecaster was on the wrong side of maybe on a particular call. For life it really starts to open the question if you can find positive mathematical expectation, doesn't it?
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Transcript
