Russia–Ukraine: grey zone and infrastructure risk

When the well-known banker J.P. Morgan was asked by a reporter to predict the future of the stock market, he gave this now-famous three-word reply: “It will fluctuate”.
Here was someone wise enough to know that making predictions is a hazardous occupation at the best of times, and doubly so if those predictions relate to often fragile and volatile financial markets.
But what the evasive and inscrutable Mr Morgan perhaps failed to realise is that the thought process required to produce a prediction is a very valuable exercise in and of itself. After all, you can only make a prediction if you have a very clear understanding of where you are, what is surrounding you and the nature and strength of the forces and influences that are being exerted upon the objects of your observation.
The ultimate value of a prediction doesn’t lie in its accuracy, but the clarity of vision and quality of analysis and understanding that has gone into making it.
What a successful prediction ultimately requires is a large slice of luck, whereas an insightful piece of analysis always carries substantial inherent value, and paints a useful picture of underlying truths, no matter the eventual outcome.
With this in mind, I have interviewed six experts with a highly eclectic set of skills and specialist knowledge, ranging from Geopolitics at the highest macro level, all the way down to highly specific perils that affect individual companies and the directors and employees who work for them.
These perils might be state-sponsored, man-made, environmental, political, legal, cyber-related or indeed from beyond the earth’s orbit entirely. They will all combine to paint a valuable picture of the state of the world today and the forces and trends likely to shape it, and the global insurance sector that serves it, in 2026 and beyond.
My six bold predictors are: Beazley’s Strategic adviser in Cyber and AI, Alex Creswell, CEO of Beazley Furlonge Ltd and Beazley’s Group Head of Specialty Risks Bethany Greenwood, Head of Space Denis Bensoussan, Environmental Liability Focus Group Leader Jenny Han, Mandeep Gosal, Vice President of Global Professional Services at Beazley Security and, completing our line-up, Beazley’s Global Cyber and Tech Claims Leader, Marcello Antonucci.
That’s a formidable group and a huge collective resource of expertise.
So, listen on as we distil that collective wisdom and turn it into a useful and insightful podcast.

NOTES & ABBREVIATIONS:
IRGC is Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

LINKS:
More 2026 predictions from Beazley’s experts can be found here: Predictions 2026 | Beazley