Escalation trap model and stages

Scott brought Robert Pape of the University of Chicago back to discuss the attempted ceasefire that went into effect on Wednesday night. Pape explains why this is not actually a meaningful step away from the escalation to a full-on war that he’s long been warning about. He also talks about how this is war is cementing Iran’s status as a world power and why he expects the Iranians to abandon their previous stance, begin earnestly pursuing nuclear weapons and attain them quickly.

Discussed on the show:

• “The Pause That Isn’t: Why the Iran Ceasefire Changes Everything” (The Escalation Trap)

• “The War Is Turning Iran Into a Major World Power” (The New York Times)

Robert A. Pape is Professor of Political Science and Director of the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats and the author of Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War. Follow him on Twitter @ProfessorPape

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