Long-Term BTC–Gold Correlation Is Near Zero

• Gold and silver reverse hard after a massive 2025 run, with gold down ~9–10% and silver down as much as ~30% intraday
• Framing: gold can shed “multiple Bitcoins” of market cap in hours, underscoring scale and volatility even for “safe” assets
• Bill Miller point: BTC–gold long-run correlation is near zero, so divergence doesn’t falsify the “digital gold” thesis
• Perspective check: gold stagnated for long stretches while Bitcoin outperformed, so recency bias cuts both ways
• Idea explored: gold strength can precede major Bitcoin moves, not as a law, but as a recurring historical rhythm
• Fed section: Kevin Warsh is nominated/expected as the next Fed chair; he’s publicly non-hostile to Bitcoin and calls much of “crypto” effectively securities
• Powell clips criticized: “central banking has served the people well” and “credibility is right where it needs to be,” despite gold signaling skepticism about fiat management
• Healthy hopium: David Marcus argues Bitcoin’s monetary properties and “gold parity” math implying ~$1.1M–$1.5M per BTC over time, with timing uncertain
• Policy/market structure: debate over stablecoins paying yield and competitive pressure on banks, plus a broader “digital assets industry” convergence thesis
• Quick hits: Binance converting a $1B reserve fund to BTC, BlackRock filing a Bitcoin premium-income (covered call) ETF concept, and a custody-related theft story

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