Is There a Recession in the US?

The markets are pricing it a peak fed funds rate of around three point nine % by next april, followed by a decline in to two point nine% by the end of 20 24. Why? In inflation that's linked to food and energy, an auto parts and and used cars and certain things are starting to roll over. The less cyclical service and housing inflation numbers are still rising. And then payrols and jobles claims have only weakened a small amount. So as long as you believe that real interest rates are are positive now and going to stay positive, I find it hard to justify an increase in p e multiples.