The Bifurcation of Venture: Idiosyncratic vs Systematic Risk

Dan Gray is a prolific thinker, writer and researcher in the VC world, who describes himself as best known for  “long walls of text on Twitter about the venture industry.” Now the Research Lead at Odin, he sits down with Nick Chirls,  Partner at Asylum Ventures, and Beezer Clarkson, Partner at Sapphire Partners, to discuss the bifurcation of VC, the different types of risk in venture, and the role geography plays in investing. He also unpacks a survey he recently conducted that dives deep into how early-stage VC is faring in a challenging year.

Learn more about Sapphire Partners: sapphireventures.com/sapphire-partners

Learn more about OpenLP: openlp.vc

Learn more about Asylum Ventures: asylum.vc

Learn more about Odin: joinodin.com

Read Dan’s Writing on VC: credistick.com

Read the Results of Dan’s Survey: credistick.com/lp-2025

For a monthly roundup of the latest venture insights, including the newest Origins episodes, subscribe to the OpenLP newsletter – delivered straight to your inbox: subscribe.openlp.vc

CHAPTERS:0:00 Welcome to Origins2:16 Unpacking the Early-Stage VC Survey12:27 Who’s Participating Where and When?15:30 The Importance of GP Branding22:19 Dan’s Advice to Early Managers29:47 What the New Normal Looks Like32:20 How Can Smaller Firms Compete?40:34 What Does This Mean for 2026?

Origins is produced by Sapphire Ventures in partnership with⁠⁠ Pod People.⁠

Nothing presented herein is intended to constitute investment advice, and under no circumstances should any information provided herein be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy an interest in any investment fund managed by Sapphire Ventures, LLC (“Sapphire”). Any offer or solicitation of securities by Sapphire may only be made in accordance with the current offering documents for a managed Fund in which Sapphire is an advisor. Additionally, Sapphire does not solicit or make its services available to the public; such offerings may only be provided to accredited investors and qualified purchasers defined within the Securities Act of 1933 and the Investment Company Act of 1940. Information provided reflects Sapphire Ventures’ views as of a particular time. Such views are subject to change at any point and Sapphire Ventures shall not be obligated to provide notice of any change. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events, results or the actual experience may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in these statements. While Sapphire Ventures has used reasonable efforts to obtain information from reliable sources, Sapphire makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of third party information presented herein. Nothing presented herein may be relied upon as a guarantee or assurance as to the future success of any particular investment opportunity or strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.