Fed narrative, data-dependence critique

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Mike Green returns to discuss why U.S. equities hit record highs despite the Iran war and oil spike, arguing systematic 401(k) and volatility/trend strategies drove historic inflows and that markets had largely priced in fear via VIX, correlation, skew, and heavy hedging that later unwound. He critiques Nasdaq’s new low-float multiplier rules as boosting demand for IPOs like SpaceX/OpenAI and warns S&P’s proposal to waive profitability requirements could turn the index into a private-equity exit vehicle and alter its historical quality bias. Green views the Fed as mostly narrative-driven except during major rate shifts, faults data-dependence, and says inflation swaps don’t show a breakout, while high rates act as a fiscal transfer that reinforces a K-shaped economy. He explains passive bond indexing can underweight long-duration Treasuries, potentially motivating buybacks/yield-curve-control-like actions. The conversation also covers AI capex, emerging AI-driven job restructuring favoring older workers, and Bitcoin’s ETF-driven financialization and limited utility.

Checkout Mike's SubStack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/

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ABOUT THE SHOW

For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.

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