Markets vs. Expert Panels

Peter Wildeford is Head of Policy at the AI Policy Network, and a top AI forecaster. He joins the podcast to discuss how to forecast AI progress and what current trends imply for the economy and national security. Peter argues AI is neither a bubble nor a normal technology, and we examine benchmark trends, adoption lags, unemployment and productivity effects, and the rise of cyber capabilities. We also cover robotics, export controls, prediction markets, and when AI may surpass human forecasters.

LINKS:

• Peter Wildeford Blog

CHAPTERS:

(00:00) Episode Preview

(01:12) AI bubble debate

(06:25) Normal technology question

(15:31) Mythos security implications

(30:47) Robotics and labor

(40:27) Social economic response

(48:57) Forecasting methodology

(59:49) AGI policy timelines

(01:11:13) Forecasting with AI

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