Underwriting Waymo: scenarios and competition

Alex Immerman, General Partner on Growth at Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), joins Sourcery to break down how one of Silicon Valley’s most influential firms is investing across AI, fintech, autonomous vehicles, and growth-stage software.

With a fresh $6.75B Growth fund, a16z Growth now manages over $22B across five Growth funds. Alex discusses how a16z evaluates category leaders, what separates private markets from public markets today, and why firms are rethinking old metrics in the AI era. He also goes deep on some of a16z’s highest-profile portfolio companies and investments including Waymo, Kalshi, Coinbase, Robinhood, Stripe, Revolut, ElevenLabs, Flock Safety, and more.

We cover:

• Why private markets now hold much of the highest-growth opportunity

• Waymo’s growth, valuation, market share, and the future of autonomous driving

• Why a16z backed Kalshi and what makes prediction markets so compelling

• ElevenLabs, voice AI, and how breakout AI companies build defensibility

• The new AI underwriting framework: growth, engagement, retention, and margins

• How a16z scaled from startup VC to capturing 18% of all U.S. venture dollars

• Why market leaders capture outsized value and how a16z thinks about winning

If you enjoy interviews at the intersection of venture capital, AI, fintech, public markets, and frontier technology, subscribe to Sourcery for more.

Alex Immerman: https://x.com/aleximm 

Molly O’Shea: https://x.com/MollySOShea 

Sourcery: ⁠https://x.com/sourceryy 

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YouTube: https://youtu.be/MLXYJZAikBc

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(00:00) Alex Immerman, GP a16z

(00:53) Flock Safety: The most underrated company in America

(03:43) Private vs public market growth gap

(04:43) Do gross margins matter in AI companies?

(06:33) Waymo’s growth and $16B funding round

(08:13) The future of ride sharing and autonomous vehicles

(10:01) Where the value in self driving tech will accrue

(12:27) Tesla FSD vs Waymo’s full stack approach

(13:50) The growing brand power of Waymo

(15:43) What comes after autonomous cars? Humanoid robots

(17:41) Are people really worried about AI taking over?

(18:55) Inside ElevenLabs’ $500M funding round

(22:12) The real world use cases of voice AI agents