The Yield Curve, Is It a Reliable Predictor of Recessions?

Inversions of the yield curve tend to precede recessions. The fed has a lot more control over the short end of the curve. A less control over longer dated treasure rights of the ten year, which is more typically set by growth expectations in general. And it's interesting that the ninetee cycle that we had just discussed stopped tightening as the slope went to kind of zero.

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