Modigliani–Miller & Leverage in Private Equity

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen analyzes the Blue Owl situation as part of a broader pattern in private credit. He argues that private credit firms purchasing insurance companies is "the fox getting into the hen house" since insurance assets are held at book value rather than marked to market, beyond easy regulator reach. Chris makes the case that public markets are superior due to transparency and liquidity, while private markets mainly benefit Wall Street through higher fees, and predicts roughly half of private equity managers will struggle to raise capital due to poor performance. From his Washington visit, Chris notes redistricting has left few genuinely competitive House seats, discusses a Supreme Court case on Voting Rights Act enforcement, and predicts 2028 will be Rahm Emanuel versus Marco Rubio. He explains Vice Chair Michelle Bowman's proposal to roll back Basel III mortgage restrictions that have discouraged bank housing finance for 15 years. On silver, Chris describes Chinese exchanges imposing trading limits due to supply constraints, commercial buyers sourcing from artisanal mines, and potential COMEX cash settlement, noting he continues adding to gold and silver positions despite volatility.

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Links:    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   

Timestamps:

0:00 Preview: The fox getting into the hen house

0:38 Welcome back — Blue Owl and the private credit blowup

1:23 Chris's reaction to Blue Owl restricting redemptions

3:19 Why this matters for retail investors and retirees

4:21 Two reasons this matters — volatility and annuity risk

5:59 How many people truly understand this risk?

6:47 It's not a headline issue until it becomes one

9:22 The Modigliani-Miller Theorem explained

11:12 Do you dabble in private markets at all?

12:18 How do you see this ultimately playing out?

13:05 Half of all PE managers will go out of business

15:12 Do you get pushback from the industry?

16:06 Moving to DC — upcoming midterms

16:45 The disconnect between media narrative and reality

18:22 Supreme Court case on Voting Rights Act

20:33 Base case for midterms — who takes the House?

22:42 Trump administration's communication problems

23:30 Bold call: Rahm Emanuel for Democratic nomination 2028

24:56 The case for Rahm Emanuel

27:09 Marco Rubio vs Rahm Emanuel prediction

28:23 Michelle Bowman's significant speech on Basel III

30:07 How Basel III distorted the mortgage market for 15 years

32:15 What's going on in silver specifically? 34:55

The silver squeeze — producers going to artisanal mines

36:01 Still long gold and silver, adding positions

37:01 What Chris is watching next week